Sunday, October 19, 2008

Kick Ass Trade Oct 20th

Sunday, October 12, 2008


Goldman Turns bearish on OIL wards of $50 0il

This should give a lift to the airlines this week and will be in the headlines tomorrow morning. Hope the gap in JBLU is not to big and looking to start a position Monday of a Double bottom chart formation Under 4.00/share

* Cuts year-end US oil forecast to $70, warns $50 possible
* Slashes 2009 average price forecast to $86 from $123
* Halves three-month view on copper to $3,500/T vs $7,960
* Cuts three-mo view on corn to $5 vs $6.50; see $6.50 wheat
* Maintains $740/ounce gold target on 12-month horizon (Updates with details, background throughout)
SINGAPORE, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs, one of the foremost bulls on commodities, turned a near-term bear on Monday after conceding that global financial turmoil would take a far bigger toll on demand than first anticipated.
"We have underestimated the depth and duration of the global financial crisis and its implications on economic growth and commodity demand," its commodity markets research team lead by Jeffrey Currie said in a report dated Oct. 13.
The bank, which has consistently been at the top of Reuters oil price polls for years, said in the report that it now expects U.S. crude oil prices to end the year at around $70 a barrel, down from a previous forecast of $115 a barrel.
"However, should the financial and evolving economic crisis cut deeper into demand, the market could fall as low as $50, which we believe to be the industry's cash cost and shut in level," the analysts wrote.
U.S. crude rose $3.11 or 4 percent to $80.81 a barrel on Monday as news of fresh European efforts to end the financial crisis revived prices from a 13-month low on Friday, when heavy selling and demand fears knocked prices 10 percent lower. [O/R]
Goldman also cut its end-2009 price target to $107 a barrel from $125 and made an even deeper $37 cut to its average-2009 forecast, which it now put at $86 a barrel -- making it the third most-bearish forecaster as of Reuters last poll on Sept 26.
The bank also cut its forecast for copper prices in three months to $3,500 a tonne versus and old forecast of $7,960, but predicted a recovery to $6,625 in 12 month's time. London Metals Exchange three-month copper rose 2.5 percent to $4,920 a tonne.
It also cut its three-month view on aluminium to $2,060 from $2,950 and saw a more measured rise to $2,600 in 12 months.
"As copper is the only base metal that remains substantially above its marginal cost of production even at the current depressed price levels, we believe that it remains the most vulnerable to further downside in the near term."
But the analysts also said recent events strengthened their argument for a structural bull market, as commodity producers are "highly dependent upon access to capital and were already struggling to grow production capacity before recent events."
"While the swiftness and severity of the pullback in commodity and other asset prices stresses the ability of the industry to grow future production capacity, it also creates a much more unstable political environment in many of the producing countries around the world."
"As a result, it is likely that the supply constraints that have propelled commodity prices to record-high levels in recent years will likely be even more binding as the credit crisis resolves and as economic growth regains positive momentum.
"This suggests the potential for substantial upside from commodity investments in the medium-to-longerterm."
On base metals, it said infrastructure growth in China, the expansion of Chinese consumer demand for manufactured good and stretched production infrastructure supported a bullish case. (Reporting by Jonathan Leff; Editing by Valerie Lee)

Wednesday, October 8, 2008


This is the first addition of Kick ass trades,there will be an Portfolio tracker for this segment of the site and trades will only appear when they are the most optimal set ups. They will be set out to members only after the 3 week trial period. Today we start with AKS as the first kcik ass trade tomorrow i Will be adding to my position hopefully around the 14.25 area or lower To qualify for a Kick Ass Trade I would not expect anything less then a 20% return in a 2 week period That would give us a target of ~ 17.00 I am looking for 18.50. I will leave the stop to your risk tolerance as i feel this is one of the best set up to date, and even if we do get a further pull back I don't expect anything more then 11.75.

Below you can see the drastic sell off we are trading 1o points off the 20 dma,.

As the dollar pulls back and other factors some unknown to the average investors (a 10 percent holder forced to sell ther stake in AKS (10%) Now that this is over and valuation has drop substantially (PE 3.45)

A few more pet pieves, What the hell are analysis thinking and why are they even getting paid, This is the time to be going Long Just look at these market calls by these yabudist

DateResearch FirmActionFromTo
23-Jul-08JP MorganUpgradeNeutralOverweight
24-Aug-07Credit SuisseInitiated
27-Feb-07Lehman BrothersInitiated
8-Feb-07JP MorganDowngradeOverweightNeutral

Data provided by -

I won't even go into the price action and levels when these calls where made, but take it from me its much higher then today's price, I think tomorrow I will be makin
g some phone calls